Bill belichick | belichick
New England Coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th-down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
Bill belichick | belichick
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th-and-2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total win probability for the 4th-down conversion attempt would therefore be:
Bill belichick | belichick
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP (WP stands for win probability)
Forget everything that Al Michaels and everyone is likely to say about this and think about that for a second. If you were in Belihick’s place would you rather have that 60% to end the game or that extra 38 yards in field position.
The advanced stats back up Belichick but I actually think this is a case where a seemingly counter intuitive decision is actually very straight forward. 38 yards in field position is not worth giving up a 60% opportunity to keep Peyton Manning on the sidelines.
Category: Sports
Written by: ikogsakanding [ 1505 Posts ] (Author Profile)
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